Low dollar: Understand the effects of the financial war

If the situation of declines regarding the dollar advances in the same direction, the currency will close at the end of the day below R$ 5 reais this Wednesday. Relations started in a very attractive way for investors, envisioning higher interest rates and rising commodity values.

The exchange rate has declined by 9.36% since the beginning of this year, with a path from R$5.66 to R$5.01, on February 22nd, being lower than the value of June 30th, closing at R$ 4.97 reais.

The goods responsible for the growth of the economy, predominant in a large context of governments like Lula and Dilma, return as the cause of the indolence of the US currency. According to the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, from the beginning of the year to the present, there has been a 13.5% increase.

The valid argument to understand is that as commodities raise their prices in dollars, the real becomes more resistant, so that exporting countries acquire more currency per purchase. Commodities are protections and they tend to act relevantly in these scenarios.

It is essential to know that the return of the double-digit basic interest rate (10.75%) makes investments in Brazil more attractive, without observing that the national market navigates with a certain comfort.

Will it continue without an increase in the dollar?

According to the Central Bank, the dollar points out that it should end 2022 worth R$ 5.50 and should go to 2023 with R$ 5.36.

Two factors fragment this understanding: The Brazilian elections and the rise in US interest rates.

However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will announce an increase in US interest rates, but it will depend on how much they intend to increase, Rodrigo Lima, investment analyst and content editor at Stake, says that when you raise interest rates, your currency tends to to value.

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