On May 1st of this year, Labor Day was celebrated, and, on the occasion, much was discussed about the advancement of automation and the risks it could bring to the jobs of the population. A study based on an analysis carried out by a group of Swiss scientists at the Federal Technical School of Lausanne which predicted which careers will be most affected by technology and the different degrees to which it will impact the population.
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In the past, people only knew that robots would replace human work in various areas of society and that other careers would be created to handle these new technologies. However, it is currently possible to predict which professions may disappear due to automation.
With the use of artificial intelligence, scientists unraveled 987 careers based on the required skill. Afterwards, they grouped them and built a ranking of which careers are most common for robots. Mapping is a classic study in the area that showed, in 2013, that 47% of professions could be taken over by robots.
A study carried out in Switzerland, published in April in the international science journal Science Robotics, predicted a scenario, based on a catalog of careers and also in the profile of the North American workforce, and cross-referenced the databases with the European skill base robotics.
“It is a new methodological proposal, very interesting and very promising”, evaluates the president of the Employment and Labor Relations Council of Comércio-SP, José Pastore. However, he makes a caveat: “For this to become a reality, it takes light years”.
In Brazil, the wait must be arduous, as the country suffers from more pressing issues. It is necessary to face the challenge of placing 20 million people in the job market before thinking about automating this market, points out Hélio Zylberstajn, professor at FEA/USP. Since the first impacts of the pandemic, the 11% unemployment rate has yielded little.
In a few years' time, when the methodology can be extended and put into Brazilian reality, Hélio thinks that she will be able to contribute to increase the qualification professional. Thus, the country must focus on filling gaps in classical vocational training.
“Above all, Brazil has a deficiency in basic education”, recalls Hélio, adding that, in most cases, the initiative has enough private sector to complete the precarious training of the population in order to be able to employ workers in their activity and strengthen their relationship with technology.
The Laboratory of the Future at Coppe-UFRJ brings together scientists who research the impacts of automation on the labor market. In 2019, a study was carried out, led by researcher Yuri Lima, who adapted the Frey and Osborne methodology to a map of the labor market in Brazil and came to the conclusion that 47% of jobs are susceptible to technology automation. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate the impacts of automation, as it also generates new jobs.
— Both the first industrial revolution, in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the fourth, which we are experiencing now, in general, did not cause unemployment. But it is important to note that, even with everything going well in the long term, there were processes of dispute and rupture in the short term, which they only ended well thanks to social actors who pushed for the construction of a better future for work”, explained Yuri Lima. The UFRJ researcher believes that the Lausanne scientists show a direction on how to alleviate the problems caused by technology.
