According to Climatempo and Metsul, there is the possibility that heat wave, which recently affected several regions of Brazil, be even more intense in October.
Climatempo suggests that temperatures may be higher than those observed during last or late September.
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This is due to the forecast of high atmospheric pressure systems that should generate higher thermal levels in the month of October, which is already naturally hot in Brazil.
As a consequence, the presence of the phenomenon El Niño contributes to keeping the air warmer in Brazil. We can expect thermometers to reach higher temperatures this month.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above average for this period in most of the country.
In states such as Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Goiás, Mato Grosso and most of São Paulo, thermometers can register an increase of 2°C to 3°C in relation to the normal average.
In the coastal regions of the Northeast and throughout the South of the country, the expectation is that thermal levels will be up to 1°C higher than normal for the month of October.
Such an above-average trend suggests that the heat will persist and that it is important to be prepared for warmer conditions throughout this month.
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Southeast
The forecast for this region in October indicates that the rains will be triggered by the heat. The occurrence of thunderstorms and storms is expected, however, of short duration and in localized areas.
Rains will be more sporadic and may be concentrated in certain regions, mainly influenced due to climatic conditions, such as heat, which can cause intense but punctual precipitation.
Midwest
The Climatempo forecast indicates that the Central-West of Brazil will face a period of heat and irregular rain.
It is expected that there will be consecutive days without rain. The forecast suggests the possibility of drought in some areas of the Central-West, which could impact agriculture, water supply and the local environment.
North East
October is traditionally a dry month with little rain in most of the Brazilian Northeast. According to the Climatempo forecast, very little rainfall is expected in October.
Drier weather is expected for Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Sergipe and Alagoas, although these conditions are within normal limits for the month, as the region is naturally dry in such period.
South
The forecast for the South region indicates that rain in October will be the result of heat, the passage of cold fronts and the presence of low pressure areas.
Regarding areas where above-average rainfall is expected, Climatempo predicts that this will occur throughout the state of Rio Grande do Sul and in most areas of Santa Catarina.
In the west of Santa Catarina and in the state of Paraná, rainfall is also expected to be slightly above average.
North
Rainfall is expected to be slightly below average for the northern region of Brazil in the month of October.
Such a prediction has important implications for aspects such as water supply, agriculture and local ecosystems.
But there is a need for communities and authorities to prepare to deal with possible challenges arising from a lack of rainfall or excess rainfall in metropolitan areas.
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