Last Wednesday, the 22nd, there was an announcement that Petrobras had reduced diesel price in its refineries. In this case, this new reduction is 4.5%, a percentage equivalent to R$ 0.18 per liter of fuel. Thus, the average price per liter is now R$ 3.84, which should ease the pockets of end consumers.
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This was the second reduction in the price of fuel with the state-owned company under Lula's PT government. Since January, many things have changed in the company, starting with the new president of the company, Jean-Paul Prates. On the other hand, the new government gave a new direction for ICMS collection, which should start in April.
Another important factor for price forecasting is the biodiesel blend. This is because the diesel that reaches consumers now has 10% biodiesel, which causes the price of fuel to suffer an increase of R$ 0.17 on average per liter. According to the company, this is the alternative to maintain competitiveness and lower the price to the consumer.
On the other hand, the change ends up fulfilling the market forecast, which was already betting on a reduction since Petrobrás started to practice prices above the import parity. Last week, the price of diesel at Petrobras reached R$ 0.10 liters above par, which means 3%.
The final consumer must have noticed that diesel has been falling for some time, more precisely for six weeks. In this case, the first decline came in January, when Jean-Paul Prates was not even at the helm of Petrobras. Even in March, diesel reached R$ 5.97 per liter, the lowest value since 2021, considering inflation.
This percentage comes from the ANP, the National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Fuel. On the other hand, the agency and the market believe that the price will rise again from April with the beginning of the new single ICMS rate. As of April, the single ICMS rate will be R$0.95% per liter, which is R$0.13 more than the current rate.