Lately, many people have doubts about how the Real is behaving in the face of inflationary changes in the world. In fact, fiscal sustainability and political risks are not something that seems to "resonate with investors" right now. However, a drop in commodity prices and weakening economic growth could affect this dynamic.
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In reality, there is a negative side to the Real that is linked to interest rate increases in the United States and risks for the Chinese economy. This movement directly threatens the appreciation of our currency in terms of, at least, the short term. However, the size of the impact will actually depend on the speed and magnitude of this problem.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, in a way, “accommodated” the elitist movements regarding the commodities that were most affected by the war. However, this scenario did not change anything for exporters of goods, who usually carry out these price negotiations at relatively favorable levels. Thus, this scenario directly favors the appreciation of the Real, which can be observed in 2022, in which the currency appreciated by around 16% against the dollar.
Geographer and pseudo writer (or otherwise), I'm 23 years old, from Rio Grande do Sul, lover of the seventh art and everything that involves communication.