With the pandemic new coronavirus, it is recommended that people remain at home, complying with quarantine. This happens due to the high risk of contagion by the virus, which can increase amid agglomerations.
In Brazil, the quarantine was introduced more than a month ago. Therefore, many people wonder when this scenario will change, as many want to leave home, but safely. Which is not possible now. Furthermore, there is doubt as to whether there is a second wave of the virus after quarantine.
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There is no answer on the subjects. The virus that causes the disease, SARS-CoV-2, is a novelty, so it is still it is not possible to have exact predictions. Despite this, for the purpose of projecting, we can analyze other epidemics for comparison.
A Spanish flu it was a pandemic that took hold in 1918 and was divided into three waves. Check out:
Of these phases, the second was considered the most violent. In this, the causative virus (influenza), underwent mutations and thus, the disease became more deadly. About 50 million people died from the Spanish flu.
The H1N1 pandemic was recent, from 2009. Its lethality was lower, with 150,000 deaths. The disease also affected people in bad of a wave. Despite this, it was barred due to the creation of new vaccines.
The new coronavirus still causes concern. A major fear is that the number of cases will increase when protective measures are reduced. In Brazil, a major problem was underreporting, that is, many cases are not registered, only after deaths.
According to the Center for Health Operations and Intelligence (NOIS), there must be 12 times more infected Brazilians than the official number. In this way, about 534 thousand people would be carriers of the virus.
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