'China could collapse in next 10 years', say experts

Renowned experts express apprehension about the future from China, envisioning a perfect economic disaster looming within the next 10 years.

The growing concern is due, in large part, to the alleged falsification of Chinese population figures, claiming a discrepancy of approximately 100 million from the official data.

What do experts say about China's future?

According to renowned geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan, the country is running out of time to avoid imminent economic disaster. In an interview with commentator Joe Rogan, Zeihan bluntly stated: "The next 10 years will be crucial for China's destiny."

Although many point to military power and political stability as protective factors against collapse, experts warn of alarming signs that are already looming on the horizon.

The Chinese economy, for example, faces serious difficulties. The “zero-Covid” policy implemented by the government triggered civil unrest, resulting in lockdowns, reduced industrial production and a contraction in consumption.

Economic growth experienced a notable slowdown in the last year, reaching levels unheard of in the last five decades. The fourth quarter was particularly affected by restrictive economic policies and questionable policy decisions.

(Image: Shutterstock/Reproduction)

What other problems need to be solved in the country?

Population aging is also a significant challenge. With fewer people of working age to support retirees, the one-child policy, which ended in 2016 after three decades, has further aggravated the situation, threatening the economic prospects oflong term.

Although measures to allow up to three children per couple have been adopted, their impact on the workforce is still uncertain. The real estate sector, a mainstay of the Chinese economy, is facing a prolonged crisis.

In 2022, house prices suffered a sharp drop, the biggest since 2015, causing knock-on effects in sectors such as construction, steel and cement manufacturing, resulting in job losses and a slowdown general.

The Chinese government strives to stabilize the real estate market by adopting measures such as tax breaks and subsidies for homebuyers. However, the challenge persists, demanding more effective solutions.

Excessive dependence on exports represents another risk factor for the country. In 2021, exports accounted for around 20% of Chinese GDP.

However, the Covid-19 pandemic has shown that this strategy can be vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and changes in trade policies.

To boost growth, China is seeking to strengthen domestic consumption, especially in the electric car sector. However, a complete structural change will require broader and more comprehensive reforms.

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts economic growth of 5.2% forChina, the demographic and economic challenges facing the country have potentially significant implications on a global scale.

A Chinese economic slowdown could trigger inflationary pressures in the US and affect demand for US products.

The world is watching the future of this evolving power closely, as China struggles to overcome the obstacles that stand in its way.

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