You virus that pass from animals to humans could kill at least 12 times more people in 2050 than in 2020, as announced by a study. According to the alert issued by the North American biotechnology company Ginkgo Bioworks, epidemics caused by zoonotic infectious diseases may occur more frequently in the future.
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The reasons discovered behind this are deforestation and climate change. The researchers also found that the number of epidemics increased by about 5% every year between 1963 and 2019, with a 9% increase in the number of deaths.
If these annual rates of increase continue, we would expect the pathogens analyzed to cause four times the number of zoonotic events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 than in 2020”, revealed the study.
According to researchers, the numbers were underestimated because the
Covid-19 was not included in the study. This is because the virus did not meet the criteria for inclusion in the research. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), it is “likely” that the virus was transmitted to humans by bats. However, some scientists dispute this theory.In this way, BMJ Global Health analyzed historical trends for four specific types of diseases, all falling within the filovirus group of diseases, including:
Researchers analyzed more than 3,000 outbreaks that occurred between 1963 and 2019, identifying 75 events that were highly notable in 24 countries. In this case, epidemics announced by the WHO and outbreaks since 1963 that killed 50 or more people were included. Historically significant events were also added, including coronavirus pandemics. the flu occurred in 1918 and 1957.
In total, the diseases caused a total of 17,232 deaths, with 15,771 caused by filoviruses and occurring mainly in Africa. Finally, the team of researchers stated that “urgent action is needed to address a large and growing risk to global health” given the trends observed.