Brazil is going through a sequence of months that has constantly broken its maximum temperature records. With the new heat wave which will intensify from this weekend onwards, November arrives with the potential to become the hottest month of the year, breaking even historical records.
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However, the situation that Brazil has been facing is not normal, being part of one of the consequences of the accelerated warming of the planet. At the same time that conditions have caused changes in the climate, experts on the subject are on alert due to the acceleration of changes.
In relation to the month of October, temperatures were well above the expected standard, reaching levels never before reached. The places most affected were the Cerrado and Pantanal, drawing the attention of international experts. Thus, the month of October ended with temperatures 6 °C above the historical average in almost half of the country.
Maximum temperatures began to reach record highs in June, and were constantly surpassed until November. For four consecutive months reaching record temperatures, this fact is an astonishing fact for the scientific community and should be a cause for concern for people around the world.
Therefore, the four months of intense heat can no longer be explained solely by the influence of El Niño or due to natural climate variability. What is happening in Brazil and around the world is part of a more complex context, that of accelerated warming of the Earth.
From January to October 2023, the global average temperature is the highest recorded on the planet during the period, being 1.43 °C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900. Furthermore, temperatures are 0.10 °C above the average for the ten months of 2016, the hottest year recorded on the planet to date.
With current data, scientists are already more than 99% certain that 2023 will surpass 2016 and become the hottest year of history. In 2016, the last two months of 2016 were colder, which reduced the average temperature for the year. On the other hand, the last two months of 2023 should be even hotter, as El Niño continues to operate.
Finally, the forecast indicates that global average temperatures for November and December 2023 will be between 0.3 °C and 0.7 °C above the levels recorded from 1991 to 2020.
