The confirmed cases of new coronavirus in Brazil have grown at a pace similar to that of Italy some weeks ago. According to data from a study conducted by seven universities, this Tuesday, the 24th, the number of confirmations could exceed 3,000.
The calculation, according to Professor Roberto Kraenkel, from the Institute of Theoretical Physics at the State University of São Paulo (UNESP), arrives at the result that the Brazilian epidemic curve is similar to those of Italy and Spain.
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Until the latest information provided by the Ministry of Health, Brazil has 654 cases, in addition to seven deaths caused by the virus. The graph above, drawn up by Unesp, shows that around 3,400 confirmed cases may appear by next Tuesday, the 24th.
O Covid-19 BR Observatory study the numbers pandemic in Brazil. The team is made up of professors from seven universities, namely: Unesp, Unicamp, USP, UnB, UFABC, Berkley (USA) and Oldenburg (Germany).
The doubling time of those infected is present among the calculations made by the researchers. One of the ways to do this follow-up is by following the daily publication time. Thus, if the forms of containment generate any effect, it will be possible to know if the virus is being “tamed”.
According to the Ministry of Health, until last Thursday, this time is 2.28 days, and falling. That is, in Brazil, every 54 hours and 43 minutes, the number of contaminated people doubles. The lower the time, the faster the pandemic spreads.
The number of tests performed is one of the factors that interfere with these calculations, because in Italy, for example, until the 9th, about 60 thousand patients had been tested. However, in South Korea, that number was four times higher.
According to a preliminary study by the University of Brasília, in São Paulo alone, 1,300 cases are expected to be confirmed in the next 30 days and 30,000 in 60 days.
For Rio de Janeiro, the State Department of Health stated that there may be two possible curves, being 4 thousand cases, if the isolation measures are effective, and 24 thousand, if the population does not follow the determinations.
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