October was the 5th consecutive month in which record maximum temperatures were registered. According to news published this Wednesday (8), by the European observatory Copernicus, scientists predict that 2023 will be the hottest year in 125 thousand years. “We can say with almost total certainty that 2023 will be the most year warm already registered”, said the deputy director of the observatory, Samantha Burgess.
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However, the situation could worsen further in 2024. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that “next year could be even hotter. The increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity that capture heat in the atmosphere clearly and unequivocally contribute to this increase in temperatures”.
The data collected suggests that current temperatures are probably the hottest in the last 100 thousand years. Thus, 2023 is the year that comes closest to the emblematic limit of a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, established by the Paris Agreement. The limit must be exceeded for the first time within a 12-month period in the next five years. However, it is necessary to record an increase of 1.5 °C in the average over several years to consider that the barrier has been overcome.
The forecast made by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that there is 50% possibility of this happening between 2030 and 2035, taking into account the rate of gas emissions from the greenhouse effect. Currently, scientists consider warming to be 1.2 °C above temperatures recorded in the industrial era.
Thus, October 2023 was “1.7°C warmer than the average for the month of October in the period 1850-1900”. Since the beginning of the year, the planet's average temperature has been the hottest recorded in the first 10 months of the year, remaining 1.43 °C above the average for the period between 1850-1900.
In addition to this, El Niño enhances the effects of climate change, which increases temperatures. The Copernicus observatory stated that the phenomenon remains active, “although the anomalies are lower than those recorded during this period of the year” between 1997 and 2015. As analyzed by the UN, the forecast is that the El Niño last until April 2024.
According to the UN, the last four months have seen steady increases in sea surface temperatures. Furthermore, further increases are expected in the coming months, due to “the intensity and nature of atmospheric-oceanic feedbacks”.
Finally, the likelihood of a cooling effect due to a La Niña episode is practically unlikely. “Extreme phenomena, such as heat waves, drought, forest fires, intense rains and floods will intensify in some regions, and this will have important consequences” explained Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the WMO.
